Everyone is a pundit these days, telling anyone who will listen who they think will win the governor’s races, the 8th Congressional District race, the presidency and their own local elections. So PolitickerWA.com decided to help fan the flames of the state of punditry by giving some prominent political people a venue in which to share their prediction skills.
PolitickerWA.com received predictions on a handful of important races across the state from a number of elected officials, staffers, bloggers and academics. See what they had to say below.
Washington State Republican Party Chair Luke Esser predicted a two point win for his side in the governor’s race, with Dino Rossi (R-Sammamish) defeating Gov. Chris Gregoire (D-Olympia) 51 to 49, a six-point win in the 8th Congressional District for Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Auburn) over Darcy Burner (D-Carnation), 53-47, adding, “I think the Harvard Hoax has really hurt Burner.”
In other statewide races, Esser predicted Doug Sutherland (R-Tacoma) would win the lands commissioner race over Peter Gold mark (D-Okanogan) 52-48, and that Attorney General Rob McKenna (R-Bellevue) would cruise to re-election over John Ladenburg (D-Tacoma) 60-40. “It’s gonna be big,” he said.Esser wouldn’t give a spread on the presidential race, saying only that “McCain is a big underdog, but he is a closer and we’ll hope for the best.”
King County Executive Ron Sims (D-Seattle) weighed in on a couple of major races, using football terminology to tell PolitickerWA.com via twitter, “Gregoire +4 and Burner +4”.
Matt Barreto, an assistant professor of political science and director of the Washington Institute for the Study of Ethnicity and Race, which sponsors the Washington Poll.
He based most of his predictions on recent polling, and said that Gov. Chris Gregoire would likely win re-elecion by a couple percentage points, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) would win the state by double digits, and Darcy Burner would ride Obama’s coattails in the 8th Congressional District to a 1-2 point win. On the initiative front Barreto predicted that both I-1000 and I-1029 would pass by at least ten points. But I-985 was trickier. He pointed to polls showing support for Eyman’s project rapidly deteriorative in the last few days, and said the outcome of the I-985 vote would depend on when people voted.
Kevin Carns, the executive director of the House Republican Organizational Committee, had this to say about the Big 3 races:
President- Obama wins White House, carries WA State 56-42ish. McCain will surprise pundits and close the gap significantly in battleground states due to Republican ground efforts, but it won’t be enough to secure the electoral votes he needs. The popular vote will be much closer than the electoral numbers.Governor- Rossi wins 52-48, late returns carry him. His campaign has run a better ground game and will close strong. Their TV on the Gregoire income tax comments will swing late undecided voters. Also, Republican staff learned lessons from 2004 and are better prepared to defend the integrity ofthe election process in 2008. WA-8- Reichert wins 53-47. The Burner degree scandal will cost her credibility with Eastside swing voters. Whether she technically has a degree in economics or not is irrelevant, her lack of relative experience and credibility gap is. That combined with a very aggressive Republican GOTV program will carry the Sheriff in what should have been a closer election.
Carns held off on legislative level predictions but expressed confidence in the GOP’s ability to pick up seats.
Eric Earling, who blogs at Sound Politics, predicted that I-985 fails and I-1000 passes, and a 12 point win for the Democrats in the presidential arena, Obama 55 percent and McCain 43 percent.
In state races, Earling things Rossi will win by less than a point, 50.3 to 49.6, “meaning we wait for d-a-y-s”, McKenna over Ladenburg, 57.6-42.3, Sutherland over Goldmark, 50.7-49.1, and in the 8th Congressional District he sees Reichert over Burner by three points, 51.5 to 48.5.
At the LD level he likes Kevin Parker (R-Spokane) and Jan Angel (R-Port Orchard) picking up House seats, in the 6th and 26th, and Mike Hope (R-Everett) and Rep. Liz Loomis (D-Snohomish) requiring a recount that will ultimately declare Loomis the winner.
Jim McCabe, who runs Eastern Washington’s McCranium blog, predicted wins in his 8th LD for Rep. Larry Haler (R-Richland) and Carol Moser (D-Richland). He also sees George Fearing (D-Yakima) taking the 4th CD from Rep. Doc Hastings (R-Pasco) and Peter Goldmark winning the lands commissioner races, both by razor thin margins.
David Goldstein from horsesass.org said his predictions were no different or better than the latest polls, and instead wanted to say that he preferred to predict the Seattle Times editorial board.
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