Former Washington State Republican Party Chair Chris Vance, who also represented the suburban 31st Legislative District for seven years, wrote an op-ed piece for Crosscut today, in which he provided his analysis of what caused Dino Rossi to lose the 2008 gubernatorial race that, for so long, seemed within his reach.

Namely he blames the bad economic climate that hit in October, which he argues reminded voters across the state of their negative views toward President Bush.

"Events drive politics," Vance writes, referring to the statement of a former British prime minister, "and events gave Gregoire her comfortable margin of reelection."

Vance points to a series of polls through the summer and into the fall that showed Rossi close to Gregoire, and even leading for a couple of weeks in September. He also goes out of his way to refute the findings of pollster Stuart Elway, who argued in the same space last month that the race was never close.

The former state chair also takes time to praise Rossi's campaign efforts, suggesting that his field and messaging efforts were as good as they could have been, but that ultimately they could not reverse the anti-Republican tide.

He also offers advice for the Republican Party going forward, shore up the suburbs:

Rossi's numbers were down all across the state, but it is the results in King County that Republicans must focus on. John McCain received an incredible 28 percent of the vote in King County. Rossi received 36 percent, down from 40 percent in 2004. In 2004, Rossi lost King County by 18 percent; this time he lost by 28 percent - the biggest change of any of the large counties. Republicans will never elect a Governor or U.S. Senator, or regain legislative majorities in Olympia, if this trend in King County continues.

It wasn't new voters that made this difference; it was a continuation of the long-term erosion of Republican support among suburbanites. This key shift is the most important factor Republicans must address going forward.

 Gregoire won the 2008 race by six and a half percentage points.