Reid Wilson's Blog

The national political landscape has changed, but in general, it isn't change we can believe in, it's change that everyone should have seen coming.

For the first time since Lyndon Johnson's Great Society, a credible case can be made that the United States is now a center-left country instead of a center-right country.

The dust has barely settled on the 2008 elections -- in fact, in a few Senate and House contests, ballots are still being counted -- but possible presidential contenders are already building foundations they will need to put them ahead of the pack in time for the 2012 Iowa caucuses, a scant 38 months away. For Republicans, the early key to success is holding a governorship, and at least half a dozen chief executives are expected to at least consider a bid for president.

As the Republican Party reels from a second straight electoral drubbing, the surviving office-holders and remaining opinion leaders are taking solace in their belief that the country remains fundamentally a center-right nation and therefore their party has a path back to victory.
  But that assumption is fundamentally troublesome. Evidence suggests voters have made a clear choice in turbid economic times and have placed as priorities issues that overwhelmingly favor Democrats. Republicans, therefore, will have to re-evaluate the issues on which their party needs to focus while reshaping their message on other issues. It is a prospect few in the party are excited about.

For the first time in the nation's history, an African-American will serve as president. For the first time since 1964, a Democrat has won more than 51 percent of the vote. But while Barack Obama remade the American electorate to sweep himself into the White House, the Illinois senator still has work to do to bring his party along with him to a lasting majority.

For the first time in the nation's history, an African-American will serve as president. For the first time since 1964, a Democrat has won more than 51 percent of the vote. But while Barack Obama remade the American electorate to sweep himself into the White House, the Illinois senator still has work to do to bring his party along with him to a lasting majority.

Amid the tumult of several good elections for Democrats, including the 2006 tide that sank all Republican boats, three GOP members of Congress have held on to otherwise Democratic seats by narrow margins. This year, as a perfect storm looks set to sweep GOP incumbents from office coast to coast, the three survivors look likely to swim, or sink, together.

Though U.S. Reps. Dave Reichert, Mark Kirk and Christopher Shays represent districts about as far apart as one can get without crossing an ocean, they have remarkably similar constituencies. Voters they represent are largely well-educated, well-off and, as their survival demonstrates, willing to split tickets between popular politicians of both parties.

All it took was a moment on a cable news program, and suddenly Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann was in electoral jeopardy. Her suggestion that members of Congress be investigated for un-American sentiment brought howls from Democrats across the country, brought a $1 million investment from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee against her and brought in $750,000 for her opponent in the space of seventy-two hours.

Now, with just two weeks to go before Election Day, Bachmann faces a challenge for her once-relatively safe seat. And she's not alone; around the nation, as voters tune in to the coming election, new Democratic targets are turning up as even safe Republicans run for their lives.

Negative advertisements are a favored subject for righteous indignation among editorial columnists and political pundits. Many assume the ads are used only for baseless smears that distort the record. The overlooked truth, though, is that negative ads can have a dramatic and devastating impact, sometimes against the very candidate who paid for them.

That seems to be the case in Minnesota, where after almost a year of the nastiest, most personal U.S. Senate race in the country, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman announced last week he would unilaterally suspend his negative campaign advertisements for the remainder of the race. The trouble is, it may already have cost him a once-comfortable lead.

With national Democrats having outspend their House GOP counterparts by a ratio of 100-1 or more, the National Republican Congressional Committee has finally launched their first ad buys of the cycle, coordinating with mail programs targeting vulnerable members of both parties. The trouble is, it may already be too late.

As the economy rockets to the front of voters' minds, Republicans find themselves at a distinct disadvantage. A full 59 percent say economic issues are the most important ones facing the country right now according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, a higher percentage of the population agreeing on one topic than most pollsters can remember at any other given time.

Even as most Republicans cast votes against the first incarnation of the emergency economic stabilization legislation, a measure which proved so highly unpopular that most congressional offices reported constituent calls about the legislation running at 100 to 1 against, the GOP still trails Democrats when voters are asked which party they trust most to handle the economy.

Nothing promotes harmony more than a crisis, and last week House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Minority Leader John Boehner could not have been closer. The two, along with the rest of their respective leadership teams, pledged a bipartisan effort to solve the rapidly escalating disaster on Wall Street, and for at least a little while, it looked like that bipartisanship was working.

Both sides saw the potential for a political explosion on the horizon, and yet pressure from the administration and the threat of a further economic disaster has prompted the vast majority of Congress that something, at least, must be done.